Bicom Analysis: The Current Situation In Gaza

Summary

1. Israel has never cut the electricity it supplies to the Gaza Strip. 60% of Gaza's electricity comes from Israel and this has continued uninterrupted, despite ongoing missile attacks on Israeli civilians in the Western Negev.

2. Whilst Israel has discussed cutting the power supply to Gaza, it has never taken this course of action. Israel played no role in the recent power cuts in Gaza. Given that Israel has continued to supply 60% of Gaza's electricity, the question that has to be asked is whether Hamas's decision to turn off the Gaza Strip power grid was part of a PR exercise.

3. In opting to follow the current course of action, Israel has made clear both its determination to avoid a ground operation in Gaza, and its eagerness to bring an end to the incessant missile attacks on Israeli civilians launched from Gaza.

Introduction

On Sunday 20 January 2008, after Palestinian terrorists fired more than 230 Qassam rockets at Israeli civilians in just four days, Israel reduced fuel shipments to the Gaza Strip. Last week more than 230 short-range Qassam rockets and mortar shells were fired at Israel by the various terrorist organisations, including Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad as well as the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades.

In the month of January alone, Palestinian terrorist groups based in Gaza fired 450 short-range Qassam rockets and mortars at Israel; the most Qassam rockets ever to hit Israel in a one-month period. Palestinian terrorist groups have fired over 4,000 rockets and mortars since Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in August 2005. And with the range of Qassam rockets now extending to the city of Ashkelon, more than 200,000 Israeli civilians are within rocket range of Gaza.

While Israel desperately seeks an end to the ongoing rocket fire, the course of action most likely to be successful would be a coordinated ground offensive. However, Israel would prefer to avoid this approach and is clearly trying to deal with the Qassam threat through any other way it can.

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