Prayer request for Malcom Betts & Others

THE CONFGLAGRATION OF HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND CURRENT RISING GLOBAL ENERGY PRICES. WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING? Rubin Rothler LLB, LLM The markets historically have responded with grave alarm at the prospect of disruptions in the major sea lanes for transporting fuel. So far, Iran has exercised a degree of reluctance to fully close this critical channel due to Chinese pressure for their major source to remain. The Chinese economy could be savaged should Iran fully attempt to shut down all shipping in its entirety. As the war continues, Iranian capability to realize these ends becomes less likely due to the severe damage inflicted upon maritime forces. The U.S. has strategically positioned their Armada in place so that they are effectively choking the deployment of the Iranian Navy at sea in all theatres. From the coast of Sri Lanka in the mid Indian Ocean to the outer reaches of the Persian Gulf, the Iranian Navy is simply out gunned and woefully inadequate technologically to pose any meaningful opposition. However, they may decide to go all in and actively concentrate directed attacks by their small boats at all incoming oil tankers in the Straights. If this scenario unfolds, we may see an impasse in the conflict. Fear in the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia has already greatly increased. These regimes continue to be actively targeted by Iran to cause maximum economic impact. They may lean on the U.S. to seek a negotiated settlement. Europe with the exception of Spain has so far largely fallen into line with the Washington consensus. But if prices rapidly increase policy may shift (as it has been with now over $100 per barrel of oil). The combination of Arab consternation, Chinese pressure and European pliability together with a collapse in global energy supplies could cause the U.S. to reconsider its objectives in terms of what can be realistically realized. Trump prepared for these repercussions and mitigated the damage by posturing accordingly. The City of London's traditional monopoly on ensuring the maritime industry is being effectively displaced by U.S. surety for transit in the Straights. Further, the operation to remove Maduro in Venezuela with the consequent assumption of their oil reserves lent handsomely to the aim of forging an alternate fuel supply to the global markets. Albeit there remain questions concerning the ability to refine thick Venezuelan crude oil as its refining is more costly and arduous than Saudi and Gulf oil. Trump gained an extension of time for getting these operations underway by drawing out the prior negotiations with Iran. Here we can see that contrary to popular comment Trump's actions are strategically calculated. Complicating matters, after the oil and natural gas embargo was imposed on Russia, Europe became increasingly reliant on Middle Eastern supplies. Qatar is the prime source of natural gas and its depots are being choked by Iranian strikes. If this persists Europe will find it extremely difficult to secure its energy needs. Similarly, India has been acutely impacted to such an extent that Trump was moved to allow Delhi to lift sanctions on Russian energy. It must also be noted however that at present there exists no shortage of ready refined petroleum supplies, not even including the embargoed Russian oil (much of it unrefined) stored in tanker ships due to Ukraine War sanctions. Trump Administration plans using US naval and allied naval assets to escort tankers through the Straights f Hormuz would easily allow Lloyds of London to provide usual insurance once those vessels clear the Persian Gulf. Hence, the upward trajectory of crude prices is in part being manipulated by certain City of London and Wall Street interests that are in some measure politically motivated to favour the American Democrat Party in upcoming mid-term congressional elections. In terms of supply actualities, crude increases should be no higher than 25% in terms of Brent and 20% in terms of West Texas Intermediary. Predictably the legacy media is misrepresenting the price surge as purely market driven, when it is to some degree being engineered. Certain questions can be raised regarding how current events will unfold. A catastrophic situation could plausibly embroil dragging in additional actors to the conflict. Serious commentators have actually cautioned that we are heading towards World War Three. Short of this, Qatar is warning of global economic disaster. At the very least we will continue to see instability in global energy markets that will increasingly hit everyday consumers at the gasoline pump.

URGENT PRAYER REQUEST Moriel has learned that Pastor John Anglisse of Ark Christian Fellowship in England, a long standing friend of Moriel, has been medically diagnosed as being pre terminal in his on going health battles. Moriel and Jacob Prasch earnestly request prayer for The Lord's intervention and prolonging of John's temporal life for the sake of his wife Mary and for his congregation and ministry. While "to Live is Christ and to die is gain" for John, his homecoming would be quite a loss for those of us who remain, and we ask The Lord for healing. We also thank our subscribers for their prayers for our friend & brother Pastor Tony Pearce in London. Tony is scheduled for two surgery procedures this week for skin cancer, one of which involves potential risks for his eye. Continued prayer is much appreciated.

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