The End of an Extended Honeymoon – Are Trump and Netanyahu Parting Ways?
The End of an Extended Honeymoon – Are Trump and Netanyahu Parting Ways?
Rubin Rothler LLB, LLM
The Israeli public had high hopes for Trump. Unlike his predecessors, he consistently endorsed Israeli measures of self-defence in the different theatres of conflict in which it had to contend. Further to these ends Trump shared in Netanyahu’s determined agenda of preventing the Iranians from pursuing the proliferation of nuclear weapons. During Trump's first term he tore up Obama's negotiated settlement with the Iranians concerning enriched Uranium, echoing Netanyahu’s position that it didn't go far enough. Now in his second term Trump partnered with Israel in a war with Iran that turned out to lack clearly defined goals. The campaign required resolve on the part of America that it wasn't willing to commit. After an initial lightning blitzkrieg that decapitated the Iranian leadership, the Persians dug in and the conflict became a protracted war of attrition hinging on Iran's stranglehold on the straits of Hormuz that could only be realistically lifted by placing boots on the ground or an intensified air war directed against Iranian coastal positions and the destruction of Kharg island, or at least the viable threat to obliterate Kharg island if Iran did not acquiesce. It transpired that Trump and Netanyahu underestimated the resilience of the Iranian regime, thinking that it had already received a near mortal blow during the prior popular demonstrations.
So now we are left with a situation where Trump is exasperated with this protracted endeavour and appears to be aiming his frustration towards Netenyahu. A sticking point is Israel's continued occupation of Southern Lebanon. Iran is insistent that Israel withdraw its forces from there as a precursor to fully committing itself to a final status agreement with the U.S. to put an end to its nuclear aspirations. With the midterm elections looming Trump seems to be desperate for an exit strategy from this war.
From Israel's perspective the fight against Hizbollah is an inextricable part of the Iranian equation. The IDF has invested massive resources and personnel in the hopes of quashing the Iranian proxy once and for all. Netanyahu is determined to build on the momentum achieved after the spectacular pager attack in 2024. After the catastrophic Hamas massacres of October 7th, the majority of the Israeli public is unwilling to tolerate a capable hostile force on its borders. Trump's proposed solution to this dilemma unrealistically suggests that Syria should take on the role of disarming and removing Hizbollah from Lebanon.
In the ultimate reckoning of international relations, America doesn't have iron clad allies, but rather interests like any other nation. If, (as appears to be occurring now) U.S. and Israeli interests fail to align the two countries will cease to act in unison and there may be a rupture in relations on the not-too-distant horizon. Trump has indicated that Israel owes him big time. He has asserted that were it not for his decisive actions they would have been obliterated by Iran's missiles. This is nothing to say of the robust diplomatic support Trump has lent Israel in such forums as the United Nations Security Council and sanctioning officials of the International Criminal Court. Netanyahu is acutely aware of what may be next after Trump. The way public opinion is turning against Israel it is unlikely that the next administration is going to be any way near as friendly as Trump has been thus far to Israel. Trump too of course is mindful of this turning tide opposing Israel. The Iran war has been unpopular to his domestic audience, and the President has been caricatured as Netanyahu’s stooge doing Israel's bidding.
Another major consideration for Trump is the colossal impact that the war has had on his other major regional allies: the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia. They have received the brunt of the Iranian backlash that has effectively targeted their energy infrastructure and trading routes. They, along with the Europeans have been exerting pressure on Trump to end the conflict and reopen the Straits of Hormuz regardless of whether the most favourable terms of Iranian capitulation are achieved. Israel, however important a strategic asset and technological powerhouse will not override these broader concerns that are endangering global energy markets.
An unspoken factor is Trump's propensity for a belligerent severing of his relationship with allies in the political sphere. His public displays of hostility with former political allies such Senator Ted Cruz, Governor Ron Santos and Elon Musk demonstrate a temperament that the same kind of falling out could invoke with strategic allies as well as those political.
Both Trump and Netanyahu are approaching the sunset of their political careers and are naturally inclined to deeply consider the legacies they will leave behind. In the international sphere Trump projected himself as a peacemaker from a position of strength. But as many commentators have pointed out, the war with Iran demonstrated the limits of U.S. power. Trump appraised Iran as low hanging fruit that could be swiftly toppled like Venezuela. However, when push came to shove and the only prospect of landing a decisive blow demanded a massive ground offensive on the scale of the Iraq war, he bottled out and sued for a premature peace that will leave Netanyahu in the cold. Netanyahu is anxious to rehabilitate the injury inflicted on his reputation of the greatest disaster to have occurred in Israel's history having happened on his watch. Eliminating Iran as the great regional adversary pulling the strings of its proxies would have done much in this regard. Neither leader is able to craft their legacies as they would have wanted. Trump is choosing the perceived option of mitigating the damage done to his legacy in foreign affairs. He is trying hard to sell his Iran deal as being more than what Obama bargained in terms of guaranteeing a nuclear free Iran. But as further details of his proposal are leaked this is becoming a tall order. Netanyahu is faced with October elections and he may decide to stay the course in Lebanon as otherwise he will seem weak to most voters. Should this happen, we will be in uncharted waters as it will thwart Trump's designs for an immediate end to this affair.










